I will have 14 hours to complete the 50.5 miles of the Baker Trail UltraChallenge this Saturday. Given that this is my first ever 50 mile run, I have been figuring out, what it will take to beat this cut off time.  I have figured that even if I do finish the full 50 miles, it is far from certain that I will make it in time.

Why do I think that? I think this because the closest thing that I have ever done to this race, is my solo run of the Rachel Carson Trail in 2020. If you read my ‘race report‘ of that run, you will realize that I ran just over 45 miles that day, and my average pace was about 16:30 minutes per mile.  The elevation gain and loss on that run was about 8,600 feet.

That run is not too dissimilar to my race on Saturday.  I will run about five more miles on Saturday, and the elevation gain will be about 7,900 feet (with about 7,500 feet of elevation loss).  If I run at the same average pace on Saturday, as I did on The Rachel Carson Trail in 2020, then the math says I will beat the cut off time by only six minutes !!

The one thing in my favor this weekend, is that a greater portion of the run will be on either paved or dirt roads.  My pace per mile should be quicker on these surfaces compared to single track trails.  I am hoping this, plus the solid amount of training I have done, will provide the buffer I need to make it to the end in time.  Wish me luck!!